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Puell Multiple
Puell Multiple is defined as the ratio of the daily value of the issued coin in USD divided by 365 days moving average of the daily value of issued coins in USD

Puell Multiple is defined as the ratio of the daily value of the issued coin in USD divided by 365 days moving average of the daily value of issued coins in USD.
Puell Multiple=Mining Revenue in USD365 days moving average (Mining Revenue in USD)\text{Puell Multiple} = \frac{\text{Mining Revenue in USD}}{\text{365 days moving average (Mining Revenue in USD)}}

Puell Multiple can be interpreted as "If all mined bitcoins were sold immediately in the market, how profitable mining pools are compared to last historical one year?". This metric helps traders gauge the market cycles from the global view.
Miners are the only entity that requires constant cost such as running electricity. Thus, miners' behaviors are always linked to price to certain degree. Puell Multiple compares 365 days average estimated revenue with short-term revenue of miners.

Predicting Price Tops and Bottoms
  • Values over ‘4’ : Short Signal
    If Puell multiple rises, it indicates that price=Miner's revenue is increasing significantly compared to the cost they put in. In this phase, bitcoin soared to point where Miner's revenue far exceeds the cost they put in. If we put regard bitcoin's true value with miners' cost (POW) and hashrate, this could indicate that bitcoin is overpriced.
    In other words, this could indicate that price is overvalued along with the increasing miner's motive to sell.
  • Values under ‘0.5’ : Long Signal
    If Puell multiple decreases, it indicates that price=Miner's revenue is decreasing significantly compared to the cost they put in. In this phase, bitcoin prices plunged to the point where miners can't handle the cost of electricity making some miners stop their mining action.
    In other words, this could indicate that price is undervalued along with the increasing miner's motive to hold their bitcoin reserve.

It shows miners' short-term revenues relative to long-term profits.
  • Increasing trend : Marketcap(Price) is heating up compared to miners' cost
  • Decreasing trend : Marketcap(Price) is cooling down compared to miners' cost

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