Glossary (Miner)
Entry into Miner flow/indicator
Miner
-A miner controls supply on the blockchain by mining blocks.
If mining pools shut down their mining activities for some reason, the network cannot be maintained.
-The place where additional newly coined amount is generated
The outflow of BTC from mining pool wallets
High
A lot of miners' coins are exposed to selling -Bearish
Low
Only a few of miners' coins are exposed to selling- Bullish
Increasing Miners' selling power is increasing- Bearish
Decreasing Miners' selling power is decreasing - Bullish
The total amount of coins transferred from mining pool to exchange wallets
High
A lot of miners' coins are exposed to selling -Bearish
Low
Only a few of miners' coins are exposed to selling- Bullish
Increasing Miners' selling power is increasing- Bearish
Decreasing Miners' selling power is decreasing - Bullish
Defined as the ratio of the number of all miners' outflows in USD divided by 365 days moving average of it.
High
Miners are sending their coins more than usual - Bearish
Low
Miners are sending their coins less than usual - Bullish
Increasing : Miners are being more involved in selling and increasing their sell - Bearish
Decreasing : Miners are being less involved in selling and decreasing their sell - Bullish
Reason to look for Miner flows/indicator
Looking into Miner's cost-benefit model with BTC price
The time point for their selling or even buying provides valuable insights generated from miner's perspective.
Miners spend their money in mining that comes with electricity or maintenance cost which makes them the only entity that follows a typical business model. They are forcibly required to sell some of their mined BTC to cover the costs. This business structure naturally exposes some of reasons behind miner's behavior. For example,
1) If they sold their BTC regularly with unusually big amount, it could indicate that Miners are selling at over-valued BTC price.
2) If they start to buy BTC instead of collecting fiats to pay for their costs, it could indicate that BTC is under-valued leading the miners to postpone their selling and trying to benefit from the under-valued BTC price.
Thus, looking at the behavior pattern of miners could provide investors with market insight that took cost-benefit model of miners into account
How to look at indicators
This section identifies the look out point for individual indicators. These indicators could be divided by their identity and the usefulness in trading. Each data tracks each feature of miners and put together, they cover multiple aspects and capture movements in miners relatively precisely.
If you want to make use of exchange data by figuring out
1) How many coins came out from miners
Checking the outflow from miners
2) How many coins are withdrawn from miners to the exchange
Checking the flow into the exchange is a great way to keep track of coins that could be sold from miners
3) To look out if most of the miners are selling BTC
Due to covering their cost, it is normal for miners to sell their BTC but if most of miners are selling, it could indicate a future price drop or provide top signal
It is wise to take a look at each indicator according to the number stated above.
Points to be aware
Just like any flow data, all the outflow from miners doesn't indicate immediate selling
Firm belief in correlation to outflow from miner with price drop will not always be correct because there are several reasons miner send their BTC to other address.
1) Just an internal wallet transfer
2) Sending their BTC to sell in the future
3) Possibility of re-sending BTC to their own wallet from exchange
There is also a possibility where miners predicted or wrongfully valued BTC.
Even though miners know the cost to generating BTC, their prediction of future BTC price could be wrong and inferring their movement with future BTC price might be misleading. For example, miner's selling does not necessarily mean a price top and their buys doesn't correlate to bottom price with BTC all the time.
In addition, there are other factors to consider such as the market competitor relation with new-old miners affecting their unexpected cost and recovering cost time preference might differ from halving to halving or by different with miner pools.
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