市值模型

The market price itself can be easily manipulated by forces especially in cryptocurrency markets, which we call noise. In order not to be fooled by market price, traders need to see multiple alternative capitalization models to see how the market is going.

Market Cap

Market Cap is defined as the total market capitalization of the coin, calculated by multiplying the total supply with its USD price.

$\text{Market Cap} = \text{Total Supply} * \text{Price in USD}$

Realized Cap

Realized Cap is the sum of each UTXO * last movement price. Since cryptocurrencies can be lost, unclaimed, or unreachable through various bugs, Realized Cap is introduced to discount those coins which have remained unmoved for a long period. It is one way to attempt to measure the value of the coin. This can be described as an on-chain version of the volume-weighted average price(VWAP).

$\text{Realized Cap} = \sum_i \text{UTXO}_i * \text{Price at creation}$

Average Cap

Average Cap is a forever moving average, calculated by dividing the cumulated sum of daily market cap by the age of the market. Instead of using fixed time for calculating the moving average (e.g. 50 days, 100 days ...), this serves as the true mean.

$\text{Average Cap} = \frac{\text{Market Cap}}{\text{Age in days}}$

Delta Cap

Delta Cap is calculated as the subtraction of Realized Cap to Average Cap. Delta Cap is often used to spot market bottoms. Moreover, by analyzing the movement of Delta Cap which oscillates between Realized Cap and Average Cap, we could notice that market tops are reached when Delta Cap is near Realized Cap (in a log scaled chart).

$\text{Delta Cap} = \text{Realized Cap} - \text{Average Cap}$

Thermo Cap (Inflows Cap)

Thermo Cap is calculated as the weighted sum of mined coins by the creation price. This measures total capitalization flowed into the blockchain network, which in turn is to be called as Inflows Cap. As shown in the below figure, by comparing to Market Cap, Thermo Cap allows traders to spot market tops or bottoms.

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